Simulating Crises


Our action-type based macro model for crises was developed during 1989-92. The actors here are states or groups. The goals of the actors are partly inconsistent. This leads to plans which cannot fully satisfied. The updates of plans can sharpen the tension or soften it. A formal algorithm is available, but not implemented.

A first simulation programme for political crises based on our crises model was written by D. Will. This PROLOG programme uses action-types, plans, conflicting plans, planning cones and goals.

Will, D. 2000. Krisensimulation mit abstrakten Handlungstypen: Ein neuer, methodischer Ansatz. Dissertation, University
    of Munich.
Balzer, W. 1996. A Theory of Binary Crises, in: R.K.Huber and R.Avenhaus (eds.), Models for Security Policy in the
    Post-Cold War Era, Baden Baden: Nomos, 233-52.
Balzer, W. and Sander, J. 1999. Towards the Qualitative, Plan-Based Simulation of International Crises, European Journal of
    Operational
Research 116, 461-76.
Sander, J. 1993. Theoretische Grundlagen für rechnergestützte Krisensimulation und -Beratung, Forschungsberichte aus
    dem Institut für Statistik und Wissenschaftstheorie der Üniversität München, Nr. 44.
Balzer, W., Gayhoff, A. und Sander, J. 1992. Structural Models of International Crises, manuscript, DFG Ba 678/4.
Balzer, W. 1992. Methodenprobleme in der Krisenforschung, manuscript, DFG Ba 678/4.
Balzer, W. und Gayhoff, A. 1993. Ein neues Krisenmodell: Fortschritte und Probleme, manuscript, DFG Ba 678/4.
Balzer, W. und Sander, J. 1997. Towards the Qualitative, Plan-based Simulation of International Crises, manuscript,
    DFG Ba 678/4 (see Qualitative Simulation of Crises).